September Opportunity Report: Comprehensive analysis of glass
Multi-dimensional factors, the recent trend of glass futures presents a complex pattern of coexistence of supply and demand easing and policy games, and the following is analyzed from various key dimensions:
1. Policy: Real estate support policies continue to exert force, but short-term transmission is limited
The 2025 government work report clarifies the tone of "stabilizing the property market and stock market", and boosts the real estate market through a combination of "four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases"。 For example, Shanghai has comprehensively promoted the transformation of urban villages (25 projects will be launched in 2025), and local government special bonds have allocated 4.4 trillion yuan for land collection and storage and the acquisition of existing housing. These policies aim to stimulate glass demand through "guaranteed delivery" and affordable housing construction, but it will still take time for the policy effect to be transmitted to the terminal from landing to terminal. It is worth noting that the Housing Leasing Regulations, implemented on September 15, mainly regulate the rental market and have a limited direct impact on glass. On the whole, policy support is expected, but it is difficult to quickly reverse the current decline of 16.5% year-on-year in real estate completions.
2. Fundamentals: High supply and weak demand are playing a game, and inventory removal is slow
Supply pressures remain
: As of the end of August, the daily melting volume of float glass remained at a high level of 159,600 tons, and the release of new production capacity in South China led to a month-on-month increase in the factory and warehouse. Although some enterprises have been cold repaired due to the loss of natural gas glass (-188 yuan/ton), the profit of coal-to-glass is still 109 yuan/ton to support production.
Demand repair is weak
: Real estate completion data continued to be sluggish (cumulative year-on-year decrease of 16.5% from January to July), and the number of deep processing orders was only 9.65 days, a year-on-year decrease of more than 30%. Despite the arrival of the autumn construction season, the actual demand picked up less than expected, and the apparent consumption of float glass fell by 11% year-on-year in August.
Inventory differentiation intensified
: At the end of August, the total inventory was 62.566 million heavy containers, a decrease of 1.04 million heavy boxes month-on-month, but the regional differentiation was significant - 0.61% of South China was destocked, and North China and Central China were more than 5%. High inventory suppressed spot prices, and the quotation of glass slabs in Shahe area fell to 1,100 yuan/ton.
3. News: Weakening cost support and export risks coexist
Raw material prices fluctuated
: The main soda ash contract closed at 1273 yuan/ton on September 2, down about 5% from the August high, and the marginal support on the cost side weakened. Heavy oil prices are affected by international oil price fluctuations and have recently remained in the range of 3200-3400 yuan/ton.
Export uncertainty increased
: In July, the export volume of float glass was 96,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 161%, but the initial tax rate of the US float glass countervailing against China was as high as 11.41%-891.62%, and the final decision result will be announced on September 22, which may impact later export expectations.
Fourth, the capital side: bears dominate the market, and the divergence of positions intensifies
On September 2, glass futures positions surged by 20.63% to 1,255,800 lots, a new high in nearly half a year, and short positions increased significantly. The net short position of the top 20 seats of the main contract reached 197,000 lots, and the short positions of Yongan, CITIC and other institutions accounted for more than 40%. The capital side presents a resonant pattern of "industrial hedging + speculative shorting", reflecting the market's pessimistic expectations for demand improvement.
5. Technical: The pattern of weak shocks continues, focusing on key support levels
Price action
: The main glass chain closed at 1142 yuan/ton on September 2, down 5.3% from the high point in August, and fluctuated around the range of 1130-1160 yuan/ton in the short term. The MACD indicator is at a low golden cross but the red bars are shortened, and the trading volume has shrunk to 1.28 million lots, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.
Basis and liter discount
: The current futures discount spot is 15-17 yuan/ton, reflecting the market's expectations for forward oversupply. The near-to-far monthly price difference - 151 yuan / ton, the term structure remains Contango, and the arbitrage space is limited.
6. Domestic and foreign background and seasonal factors
International environment
: The slowdown in global economic growth suppresses commodity demand, and the extension of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle may exacerbate the pressure on capital outflows.
Seasonal factors
: The demand of the traditional "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" peak season fell short of expectations, and the output of float glass in August increased by only 1.46% month-on-month, indicating that the industrial chain lacked confidence in the recovery of demand.
7. Investor psychology: Pessimism dominates, expecting policy catalysis
Market participants generally believe that it is difficult to substantially alleviate the contradiction between glass supply and demand before the real estate sales data improves significantly. The recent surge in positions reflects investors' attention to the policy game - if the implementation of urban village renovation funds accelerates in mid-to-late September, it may stimulate the market's optimistic expectations for forward demand, but the current bears still dominate.
Conclusions and Strategic Recommendations
Short-term (1-2 weeks): The loose pattern of supply and demand has not changed, superimposed on short funds, glass futures may continue to fluctuate weakly at 1130-1160 yuan/ton. Operationally, it is recommended to rebound to around 1150 yuan/ton for light positions to test the short, with a stop loss of 1170 yuan/ton.
Medium-term (1 month): Pay attention to the final results of the US countervailing ruling on September 22 and the details of real estate policies. If exports are not substantially impacted and the policy strength exceeds expectations, futures prices are expected to rebound to 1200 yuan/ton; On the contrary, if inventory continues to accumulate, the price may fall to the cost line of 1100 yuan/ton.
Risk warning: The policy strength exceeded expectations, the price of soda ash fluctuated sharply, and the export data exceeded expectations.
