There is a phenomenon of ice and fire in the glass industry

At present, the glass industry presents a pattern of "ice and fire", and the phenomenon of float glass price increase, deep processing price reduction and cost rise coexist, which is mainly affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand structure, industrial chain transmission and policy regulation. Here's the analysis:

1. Reasons for the price increase of float glass
Inventory decline and demand recovery
In April 2025, the inventory of float glass enterprises across the country fell by 0.19% month-on-month, and some companies stimulated shipments through a small price increase, and the downstream replenishment led to an increase in production and sales rate, and short-term supply and demand improvement supported the price rebound.

Real estate policy is expected to improve
Although the area of real estate completions fell by 14.3% year-on-year.However, the continuous support of the policy side for "guaranteed delivery of buildings", superimposed on the stockpiling behavior of traders in advance, promoted the phased recovery of float glass prices.

Cost pressure transmission
The price fluctuations of raw materials (such as soda ash) and the increase in environmental protection policies have led to an increase in the production cost of float glass, and enterprises have eased the pressure through price increases.

Second, the price reduction and dilemma of deep-processed glass
The cost and selling price are inverted
The price of float glass has risen disorderly, and the cost of raw materials for deep processing enterprises has increased by more than 100 yuan per ton, but the terminal sales price is subject to fierce market competition and has not been raised synchronously, and the profit margin has been seriously compressed.For example, the price of engineering glass has been reduced from 300 yuan/㎡ to 100 yuan/㎡.

Vicious competition
in the industry The deep processing industry has long existed in the phenomenon of "low-price bidding" and "advance production", superimposed on the shrinking of orders, and enterprises are forced to reduce prices to maintain cash flow, forming a price "dammed lake".

Weak
demand for real estate The sluggish demand for real estate has been transmitted to downstream fields such as curtain walls and home furnishings, and the number of orders for deep processing has dropped sharply, further intensifying the pressure on the survival of enterprises.

3. Drivers of rising costs
Raw material price fluctuations
Raw materials such as soda ash required for float glass production are affected by the growth in demand for photovoltaic glass, and the tight supply has pushed up costs.

Overcapacity and structural contradictions
Although the daily melting capacity of float glass remains at a high level of 173,000 tons.However, the recovery on the demand side has been slow, and companies have been forced to digest inventories through price competition, further eroding profits
Policy and environmental protection pressure
Under the "double carbon" strategy, although the promotion policy of energy-saving glass is conducive to long-term development, the investment in environmental protection transformation will increase the operating costs of enterprises in the short term.

Fourth, industry contradictions and future challenges

Imbalance in the transmission of the industrial chain: float glass companies have a strong ability to hedge risks through futures tools.Due to weak bargaining power and tight capital chain, deep processing enterprises have become the main bearers of industrial chain risks.Long-term demand concerns: The downward cycle of the real estate industry may continue, the capacity adjustment of the glass industry still takes time, and the "cold winter" of the industry may continue for a long time.

In summary, it is difficult to fundamentally improve the differentiation pattern of the glass industry in the short term, and enterprises need to respond to the challenges through capacity optimization, technological innovation and the application of risk management tools (such as futures hedging).