Data analysis of China's glass industry in 2025

1. Market size and growth

1. Overall industry scale: In 2022, the total output value of China's glass industry will reach 350 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%; The production of flat glass is about 1 billion weight boxes, and the consumption is about 980 million weight boxes.
2. Segment growth :
• The market size of borosilicate glass in the first half of 2024 will be about 3.234 billion yuan, and technological breakthroughs have promoted its application in extreme environments.
• The annual production capacity of photovoltaic glass in 2022 will be 23.43 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 53.5%, and the global demand is expected to reach 21.384 million tons in 2023.
• The float glass market is highly competitive, and Xinyi Glass's float business revenue in 2023 will reach 14.832 billion yuan.

Second, the dynamics of the industrial chain

1. Upstream raw material costs: price fluctuations such as soda ash and quartz sand significantly affect the production cost of flat glass, and the industry's profits are at a high point for the whole year at the beginning of 2024, but then gradually decline due to overcapacity.
2. Downstream Application Structure:
• The construction sector accounts for more than 60%, the demand for automotive glass grows with the increase in production, and electronic glass benefits from the popularization of smart devices.
• Photovoltaic glass exports continue to grow, with an export volume of 2.2529 million tons in 2022, and China accounts for nearly 61% of the global production capacity (five provinces including Anhui and Guangxi are the main production areas).

3. Competitive landscape

1. The echelon stratification is obvious
• The first echelon: Xinyi Glass, Kibing Group, the layout of global production bases.
• The second echelon: CSG, Jinjing, etc., mainly architectural glass.
• The third echelon: small enterprises have weak anti-risk ability and rely on the local market.
2. Photovoltaic glass concentration: The total production capacity of Follett and Xinyi Solar accounts for more than 50%, and the revenue of Follett in 2022 will be 13.682 billion yuan, and the sales of Xinyi Solar's solar glass will account for 85.94%.

Fourth, policy and technology trends

1. Policy regulation: The State Council's "2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan" clearly restricts the expansion of flat glass production capacity and promotes energy efficiency upgrades.
2. Technical Direction :
• The penetration rate of energy-saving glass and smart glass has increased to support the development of green buildings.
• The demand for photovoltaic glass is driven by the installed capacity of new energy, and the compound growth rate of global installed capacity is expected to exceed 20% in 2025.

5. Risks and challenges

• Downward pressure on real estate: The sales area of commercial housing will decline year-on-year in 2024, suppressing the short-term demand for architectural glass.
• Overcapacity risk: Glass production capacity will reach a high level by the end of 2023, and the industry will enter an active destocking cycle in 2024.

The above data show that China's glass industry is responding to structural adjustment through technological innovation and capacity optimization, and photovoltaic and special glass will become the core driving force for future growth.