Cycle | Glass futures may be ushering in a new round of gains

The glass futures market ushered in a long-lost outbreak on September 16. The main contract FG2601 closed at 1237 yuan/ton, up 3.69% in a single day, a new high in nearly a month.



The options market was even crazier, with the glass 2512 buy 1560 option contract soaring 78.57%, and two other call contracts also rising 74.19% and 71.43% respectively.


This is no longer an ordinary price fluctuation, but a directional choice of market sentiment. Behind this surge is the heating up of the expectation of the "anti-involution" policy and the resonance effect of the traditional peak demand season of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten".


1. Historical cycle, fluctuation law of glass prices


Looking back at the historical trend of glass futures, we can see obvious cyclical characteristics. In 2024, the current price of glass futures will show significant linkage, and the overall shock will decline throughout the year.


The main continuous contract fell from 2,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 1,004 yuan/ton in mid-September (the lowest point since 2016), and then rebounded to around 1,400 yuan/ton under policy expectations.


For the whole year of 2024, glass futures as a whole will show a volatile downward trend, maintaining an overall trend between 1,000-2,000 yuan. At the beginning of the year, the daily melting was high, the futures price fluctuated downward, the market demand weakened after June, the inventory of glass enterprises accumulated rapidly, and the futures price accelerated the decline.


From August to October, glass profits turned from positive to negative, and the industry's losses gradually increased. Under the influence of continuous losses, the cold repair speed of glass enterprises accelerated in the third quarter, and the supply gradually contracted.


At the end of September, stimulated by macro real estate market policies, capital turnover improved, midstream speculation to buy goods, downstream replenishment, and the Fed's interest rate cut boots landed, the glass industry ushered in a large wave of destocking, and the futures price fluctuated and rebounded.


By the end of November, the daily melting volume of glass had fallen from 173,700 tons at the beginning of the year to 158,500 tons.


2. The current situation and the practical dilemma of the supply and demand pattern


At present, the glass market shows an obvious phenomenon of "divergence between futures and cash". Compared with the hot futures market, the glass spot market is much calmer.


The average price of the domestic float glass market is only 1160 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous day. This divergence reflects that fundamentals have not fully caught up with the pace of market sentiment.


On the supply side, the melting volume of the glass industry was stable at 160,200 tons per day of production, and there was no significant fluctuation in the short term. Although the demand-side follow-up has remained in good condition, it has not improved further.


Terminal real estate data remains sluggish, with a 17% decline in completed area from January to August, revealing the real pressure on the market demand side.


As of late June, the total inventory of float glass enterprises across the country reached 69.887 million heavy boxes, an increase of 54.54% from the end of last year and 16.82% year-on-year, which is at a high level in the same period in the past three years.


3. Future trends, the game of policy and demand


The key to the subsequent development of the glass market depends on whether policy expectations can be fulfilled and how much it resonates with peak season demand.


Changes on the supply side cannot be ignored either. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to how the anti-involution policy will further affect the industry.


The sustainability of the demand side needs to be paid close attention. Yesterday, the production and sales rate in mainstream areas was mostly around 90%~100%, and the follow-up spot trading is expected to further increase driven by the recovery of futures market sentiment.


Market participants need to observe whether external factors such as macro and anti-involution can form a continuous resonance effect with the peak demand season. Only with the cooperation of actual demand can this wave of rising market go further.


Institutions have maintained a relatively calm attitude towards the strong performance of the glass market. Nanhua Futures believes that the high inventory of glass upstream and midstream, coupled with weak real demand, limits the price height, and glass prices "lack clear trends and trading logic".


Everbright Futures pointed out that under the boost of external factors, the trend of glass futures prices has strengthened, and the phased upward trend has basically been established, but it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of macro and anti-involution policies on the industry.


Chaos Tiancheng Research has a relatively positive view, they believe that the downstream demand for glass has improved, the daily melting volume is low and fluctuating, and the supply and demand are basically balanced, and it is recommended to "buy the dip and pay attention to policy changes".


4. Investment strategy, opportunities and risks coexist


From a technical point of view, on September 16, the glass 2601 contract fluctuated upwards throughout the day, and the trading volume was significantly enlarged, but the open interest decreased by 61,400 lots.


Combined with the ultra-high negative commission ratio, it shows that this round of rise is mainly driven by the closing of short positions and leaving the market, rather than the active attack of new and long funds. Although the main contracts performed well today, we still need to be wary of the risk of a high technical pullback.


For the trend of glass futures in 2025, there are certain differences in institutional forecasts. It is conservatively expected that the operating range of the main glass contract will be 1100-1750 yuan/ton.


Some institutions are more optimistic, believing that the conservative range can reach 1500-2200 yuan/ton, and in extreme cases, it may rise to 2500 yuan/ton, but it needs to be supported by monetary policy that is looser than expected.


Greenland Futures recommends that investors mainly lay out short orders on high prices, and when the price falls below a certain level of cost price and the loss reaches 200-300 yuan, they can make cost support rebounds according to the market situation.


They gave the first support level below the glass at 1000 and the second support at 800; The first resistance level is 1650, and the second resistance level is 2000.


5. Deep thinking, glass market from a cyclical perspective


From a cyclical perspective, the glass market is in a fierce game between policy expectations and fundamental reality. Historical cycles show that glass prices usually fluctuate in cycles of 3-5 years.


If the price is at a trough in 2023-2024, it may enter a recovery phase in 2025.


The current glass market is undervalued and the price downside is limited. According to the data, as of September 5, 2025, the cost of glass fueled by coal-to-gas in China is 994 yuan/ton, and the cost of glass fueled by petroleum coke is 1,046 yuan/ton.


The cost support logic is still valid, and the probability of glass spot prices falling below 1,000 yuan/ton during the year is small.


Seasonal increase in demand is also one of the supporting factors. The total domestic glass production capacity is about 200,000 tons/day, and the actual melting volume on production day is mainly affected by profits.


The data shows that when the average loss of the glass industry is higher than 100 yuan/ton, the supply of glass will drop significantly; When the average profit of the glass industry is higher than 300 yuan/ton, the glass supply will rebound significantly.


After entering the peak demand season, the pressure on the glass supply side may weaken. It is expected that the supply and demand of glass will be relatively balanced from September to November, and policy expectations may drive traders to replenish inventory, thereby driving glass inventories to decline and prices to rebound slightly.




Looking ahead, the development path of the glass market depends on the resonance effect of policy expectations and peak season demand. Market participants need to observe whether external factors such as macro and anti-involution can continue to resonate with the traditional peak demand season of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten".


Historical cycles tell us that glass prices are always moving forward in fluctuations. Today, the price increase effect brought about by policy expectations has been revealed, but the spot market is still calm. The frenzy of the futures market contrasts with the calmness of the spot market.


The coming weeks will be key. If the policy rules are implemented as scheduled, if inventories begin to decline, and if demand really picks up, then glass futures may really usher in a new round of upward cycle.


Disclaimer: The above analysis is based on public data and cyclical model deduction and does not constitute investment advice. The market is risky, and decision-making needs to be cautious.