Analysis of the future trend of float glass prices in China in 2025
Analysis of the future trend of float glass prices in China in 2025
1. Supply side: production capacity fluctuates at a low level, and the supply increment is limited
In 2025, the daily melting volume of float glass will continue to be at a low level, and the daily melting volume will drop to 155,000 tons/day in February, a new low in five years23。
In terms of sub-regions, the production capacity of North China and East China increased slightly (such as the new 800 tons/day production line in North China), but there are cold repair plans in Central China and Northeast China, and the national daily melting volume is expected to remain in the range of 157,900-159,600 tons/day, and the fluctuation range of the supply side is limited2。
2. On the demand side: the real estate drag is obvious, and the policy is expected or phased support
After the adjustment of the completion end in 2025, the market has a large divergence on glass demand, and the enthusiasm for midstream and downstream procurement is insufficient13。
Short-term policy expectations (e.g., measures to stabilize growth) may stimulate downstream construction and drive a phased recovery in demand, but the suspension of projects in winter and long-term property weakness still constrain consumption growth34。
The difference in the cost of coal-to-gas, petroleum coke and other fuels has expanded: the gross profit of coal-to-gas glass in North China is about 100 yuan/ton, while the gross profit of petroleum coke glass in Central China has suffered a loss (gross profit -100 yuan/ton) due to rising costs (an increase of 188 yuan/ton year-on-year)1。
The cost of natural gas is relatively stable, but the gross profit is still in a state of slight loss, and the pressure on the cost side may accelerate the clearing of production capacity in high-cost areas, which will further affect the supply structure1。
4 . Inventory pressure: high inventory accumulation short-term suppression of prices
During the Spring Festival, the inventory of glass factories increased by 21% year-on-year, and the total inventory reached 63.104 million heavy boxes (29.2 days), a high in the same period in the past three years, and the lack of market digestion capacity led to price pressure3。
If the inventory is depleted smoothly after the downstream resumes work, the price may stabilize; On the contrary, high inventories may trigger manufacturers to reduce prices and destock, further dragging down market confidence3。
5 . Price trend: mainly in a narrow range, cost support limits the downside
At present, the price of float glass shows a narrow range of fluctuations: the price in mid-February 2025 was 1405.1 yuan/ton, and fell to 1383.4 yuan/ton in the second half of 2025, a decrease of 1.5%56。
In the medium to long term, low supply patterns and cost support (especially in coal-to-gas areas) may limit the room for sharp price declines, but weak demand and high inventories still suppress the rebound in profits, and prices are expected to be range-bound.
