Analysis of investment and trading strategies of glass futures from October 2025 to June 2026
The following is an analysis of the investment trading strategies of glass futures (FG2601, FG2605 and other contracts) from October 2025 to June 2026. The analysis synthesizes key dimensions such as supply and demand fundamentals, policy expectations, cost support, seasonal factors and market sentiment, and puts forward specific strategic suggestions. The strategy is based on current market conditions (data updated to September 2025), and it is necessary to pay close attention to the implementation of subsequent policies and inventory changes.
1. The core contradictions and overall outlook of the market
Long and short factors are intertwined, and the shock is mainly strong
2025Q4: The price range fluctuates strongly, with a core range of 1150-1400 yuan/ton. Policy expectations and weak fundamentals are in a game, and the upside is suppressed by inventories.
2026Q1-Q2: Pay attention to policy effectiveness. If real estate sales do not improve, the demand may step back on cost support (1100 yuan/ton) in the off-season (spring); If the policy exceeds expectations, the price is expected to rise to 1500 yuan/ton.
Weak real estate: The completed area is expected to decline by 7%-13% year-on-year in 2025, and the overall demand for glass is under pressure.
High inventory: The current inventory is 65.08 million heavy containers (+9.94% year-on-year), the midstream inventory is high, and the destocking speed is slow.
Abundant supply: The daily melting volume remains above 160,000 tons/day, and there is no significant contraction on the supply side.
Policy expectations: Anti-involution policies (such as stricter capacity replacement and stable growth plans for the building materials industry) and potential real estate bailout policies may boost market sentiment.
Cost rigidity: the center of gravity of coal prices has shifted upward, the downward space of soda ash is limited, and the cost of glass is stable (the cost of coal production is about 1100 yuan/ton). If the price falls below the cost line, it may trigger a reduction in cold repair production (potential cold repair production capacity of 21,400 tons/day).
Seasonal demand: The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season, and the month-on-month improvement in real estate completion and stocking before the Spring Festival may drive destocking.
Key nodes and risks
Policy window: The introduction of incremental policies and the implementation of anti-involution rules from the end of September to October 2025.
Inventory signal: Q4 destocking speed (target less than 50 million heavy containers) is the key to price elasticity.
External risks: soda ash price fluctuations, overcapacity transmission of photovoltaic glass, and worsening real estate debt problems.
2. Phased investment strategy
The following strategies are detailed for the main contracts FG2601 (expiring in January 2026) and FG2605 (expiring in May 2026), combined with the time frame:
1. October-December 2025 (Q4 peak season window).
Strategy tone: interrange operation, more treatment
When the price pulls back to 1150-1200 yuan/ton (FG2601 support area), light positions are long orders.
After breaking through 1250 yuan/ton, the position will be increased, with a target of 1300-1400 yuan/ton.
Timing of entry:
Stop loss setting: Stop loss below 1100 yuan/ton (cost line).
Basis: Peak season stocking, policy expectations are heating up, and inventory is expected to decline slightly.
Hedging and arbitrage:
Multi-glass empty soda ash arbitrage: intervene when the price difference reaches -130 to -150 yuan/ton (long FG2601 short SA2601), and the supply of game glass contracts faster than soda ash.
Option protection: buy call options with a strike price of 1200 yuan/ton (premium of about 20 yuan/ton) to limit downside risk.
2. January-March 2026 (off-season adjustment period).
Strategic tone: Defend cautiously and focus on pullbacks
If Q4 rises to more than 1,400 yuan/ton, you can gradually reduce your position or lay out short orders (stop loss of 1,450 yuan/ton) to play the inventory pressure in the off-season.
If the policy fails and inventory accumulates, the price may fall to 1,100 yuan/ton, and wait for the stabilization signal before intervening in long orders.
Basis: Construction stagnated around the Spring Festival, and demand weakened seasonally.
3. April-June 2026 (second peak season trial).
Strategic tone: Observe policy transmission and flexible layout
If the real estate data improves (such as the completion decline narrows to less than 7%), long orders will be placed at 1150-1200 yuan/ton (FG2605 support), with a target of 1400 yuan/ton.
If demand does not improve, continue the range shock strategy (1100-1300 yuan/ton), sell high and buy low.
Key variables: real estate sales data, degree of policy effect.
3. Auxiliary strategy tools
Technical assistance
Support level: 1188 yuan/ton at the daily level (lower Bollinger band), below which it weakens.
Resistance level: 1400 yuan/ton (former high pressure area).
Industrial chain hedging guidelines
Manufacturers: When the price rebounds to more than 1250 yuan/ton, gradually increase the hedging ratio.
Downstream enterprises: When the price is less than 1200 yuan/ton, they can buy hedging to lock in the cost of raw materials.
Intertemporal arbitrage opportunities
If the near-month contract (such as FG2601) is discounted to the far moon (FG2605), pay attention to the positive opportunity of the reversal of "near strong and far weak".
4. Risk warning
Policies fall short of expectations: If anti-involution or real estate policies are not substantially implemented, bullish sentiment may subside quickly.
Deterioration of inventory: If the destocking speed is lower than expected (such as inventory continues to be higher than 60 million heavy containers), the price may break the cost support.
Macro shocks: Global economic recession and sharp fluctuations in energy prices may amplify glass futures volatility.
Conclusion: The core logic of glass futures from October 2025 to June 2026 is "the game between policy expectations and weak reality". It is recommended to focus on range-bound shock thinking, Q4 focuses on dips and long, and flexibly adjusts in the first half of 2026 according to policy effectiveness. Priority should be given to the arbitrage opportunity of multi-glass empty soda ash, and the stop loss should be strictly set. Closely track weekly inventory data and policy trends (such as documents from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, real estate sales data).
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