In-depth analysis of the 9.26-day glass 2601 contract: long and short choices under the game between policy expectations and fundamentals

9.26 Glass 2601 combines fundamentals and technicals, Lao WangA comprehensive assessment of the future market trend of the glass 2601 contract is conducted. At present, there is a divergence between short-term sentiment and long-term fundamentals in the market, and the rhythm needs to be carefully grasped in operation. For more variety analysis, please pay attention to Lao Wang and leave a message at the bottom of the article, Lao Wang will update the new variety in-depth analysis in time, Lao Wang is very listening to persuasion.

Influencing factors

Bulls/support

Bearish view/stressors

Policies & Messages

"Anti-involution" policy expectations, industry conferences call for price increases, and new production capacity is strictly prohibited

There is a lag and uncertainty in the actual implementation of the policy, which cannot be confirmed by rumors

Supply and demand fundamentals

Seasonal peak season, pre-holiday downstream replenishment

Supply remains high, the intensity of real estate completion demand is limited, and midstream inventory is high

Technical

Daily and weekly technical indicators (such as MACD) show a trend of increase

Short-term indicators show overbought and there is pullback pressure

Comprehensive operational strategy recommendations
Based on the above analysis, the following are specific operation strategy suggestions for different trading styles.

Short-term traders
Idea: Follow the market sentiment, pull back to go long, and chase higher cautiously.

Key points:

Support area: 1237 - 1240 yuan/ton (near the low of September 25 and the middle track of the 30-minute line). This area is an ideal entry point for short-term long orders.

Resistance level: 1282 yuan/ton (previous high), followed byThe psychological threshold of 1300 yuan/ton.

Strategy:

If the price pulls back to stabilize around 1240 yuan/ton, you can consider trying long light positions, and the stop loss is set at 1230below yuan/ton.

If the price strongly breaks through 1282 yuan/ton, it is not appropriate to chase higher, and the effectiveness of the breakthrough needs to be observed.

Risk warning: Pay close attention to changes in open interest. If there is a decline in volume, it may mean that short-term sentiment is at a low tide, and long orders should leave the market in time.

Medium and long-term traders
Idea: Pay attention to swing opportunities, but you need to realize that the driving force of the trend surge is not yet solid.

Strategy:

Dip layout: pay attention to 1190 - 1210 yuan/ ton area (daily SMA20 moving average and weekly level support). If the price can fall back to this area and there is a stabilization signal, it can be regarded as a more margin of safety for the medium-term long entry opportunity.

Arbitrage opportunities: Consider focusing on the arbitrage strategy of "multi-glass (FG2601) and empty soda ash (SA2601)"

Risk warning: The core of the medium- and long-term trend lies in whether the fundamentals can be substantially improved. If the demand during the peak season of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" is falsified, or the inventory is removed less than expected, the price will return to the downward trend

Summary and Focus
Overall, the glass 2601 contract is currently in a game of short-term news-driven rise and weak medium- and long-term fundamentals, with a trend that has turned more but short-term overbought

As you do this, focus on changes in the following information:

Inventory data: The weekly total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is the most critical indicator to verify the quality of demand

Substantive policy progress: Pay attention to whether there are specific policy documents on capacity withdrawal or news about the actual shutdown of large production lines

Spot trading and price: Track the spot price and shipment situation in major production and marketing areas such as Shahe, and be vigilant if futures rise but spot is weak

No one can always buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point. The market is a game of probability, not a deterministic science. Veterans pursue "trial and error", enter the market according to the signal, let the profit run if it is right, and stop the loss decisively if it is wrong. What you need is not to see right, but to "make more when you see right, and lose less when you see wrong"

(Disclaimer: The above analysis is based on public information and historical data, is a personal analysis record, is only for investment research purposes, and does not constitute any trading advice.) Futures investment is extremely risky, please make independent judgments according to your own situation, make independent decisions and bear corresponding risks. ）