Analysis of the development status of the glass industry: challenges and ways out

The glass industry is deeply trapped in the dilemma of "weak supply and demand", and it is difficult to resist the downward trend of real estate under policy support, and structural adjustment and differentiation will accelerate in 2025. The survival of enterprises depends on strict capacity control at the macro level, as well as the ultimate cost control and high value-added product transformation at the business level.

1. Imbalance between supply and demand: The core contradiction continues to deepen

Rigid overcapacity (especially traditional float) VS real estate-led demand continues to shrink. The daily melting volume of float in 2024 has dropped from 173,700 tons to 158,500 tons in 2025 (Longzhong data), but the inventory in August 2025 is still +3.12 million heavy containers month-on-month, and the average price has fallen to 1,274 yuan/ton (Zhuochuang Weekly Report data), showing that the production capacity is insufficient.

Real estate demand is a hard wound: real estate sales continue to grow negatively, and the area of new construction is sluggish, directly weakening the demand for 70%+ float glass. The downturn in real estate is a long-term structural trend (population, urbanization stage), while the supply adjustment is lagging behind and the cost is high (cold repair/resumption of production costs), and the industry's capacity utilization rate will continue to be under pressure. Cold repair becomes a passive control valve, and enterprises generally lose money, forcing enterprises with difficult capital chains to accelerate cold repair. It is expected that the cold repair in the second half of 2025 will exceed expectations, the cold repair will accelerate, and small and medium-sized enterprises may be the first to clear out, and the supply and demand or marginal improvement in the second half of 2026. At present, glass enterprises should maximize the cost potential, strictly control capital expenditure, and reduce operating costs. We must do everything possible to maximize the opportunity of high value-added products and reduce losses on the product side. In order to be able to pass through the ice age of this market.



2. Policy support: The effect is limited and lagging

The central and local stimuli for real estate (such as relaxing purchase restrictions, guaranteed delivery of buildings) and infrastructure efforts to indirectly pull the demand for glass.

The policy focuses on "holding up but not lifting". For example, Beijing introduced "no purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road" in August 2025, aiming to stabilize the market rather than strong stimulus. The acceleration of special bond issuance (year-on-year increase in 2025) supports infrastructure, but the pull on glass is weaker than that of real estate.

The transmission chain of policies is long and the effect is attenuated. The policy → the confidence/financing → land acquisition/new construction → glass demand of real estate enterprises, and the transmission will take more than 6-12 months. In 2025, new construction will still grow negatively, with only a "narrowing of the decline", which will give limited boost to glass demand.

The policy is that painkillers are not antidotes. The current series of "guaranteed delivery of buildings" measures only digest the stock of real estate, mainly solve the existing projects on the completion side, and contribute slightly to the demand for new glass. Whether it can substantially reverse developers' expectations and buyers' confidence, according to historical experience, under the inflection point of the population and high inventory, the stimulus effect of the policy is decreasing, limited to preventing a hard landing of the economy, which can alleviate the downward slope and difficult to change the essence of demand contraction.

3. Enterprise strategic dilemma: a life-and-death game between cold repair, production reduction and transformation

      Survive first vs transform first, the only two ways to survive and develop is the ultimate cost control, All in high-end transformation. Choice becomes a painful choice between whether the enterprise can withstand financial pressure. Under the pressure of loss, how to balance short-term survival pressure (cost control, destocking) and medium- and long-term competitiveness (technology upgrading, category expansion) is a problem that has to be put in front of enterprises.

(1) Short-term view:

The plummeting profits of leading enterprises confirm the losses of the industry, and cold repair/production reduction has become a must-have option for small and medium-sized enterprises to "stop bleeding". In 2026, self-disciplined production reduction and rigid cold repair will be the main theme of enterprise operation.

       In the second half of 2024, photovoltaic glass has fallen into a state of overcapacity and price war, and most photovoltaic glass companies have turned profits into losses. The path to transformation to the photovoltaic track has been blocked in the short term.

(2) Long-term view:

The transformation of traditional glass enterprises to high added value is imminent, low-cost strategy, product upgrading, electronic glass, automotive glass, energy-saving low-E glass, and deep processing products are the mainstream directions, but these development directions have the dilemma of large investment, long cycle and high technical barriers. Dongxu Group's bankruptcy warns of the risk of transformation. In terms of photovoltaic glass, it can be seen that the current stage is in a surplus, although there are still large time variables in the price war, but with the support of favorable factors such as policies (installed targets), technology iteration, and export digestion capacity, the market expectation is still optimistic, and the future can still be expected.

   

4. Structural opportunities: Looking for the light in the stock market

(1) Float glass is facing a downward spiral trend in the market, and the systemic risks brought about by the soft landing of the real estate industry are very clear.

(2) However, the Chinese market, which has a huge population advantage, still has a large stock market demand, such as urban renewal and energy-saving renovation, old house renovation, and energy-saving standard improvement (such as door and window replacement).

(3) Industry integration is accelerating, and the deep adjustment period is an opportunity for leaders to rely on capital and cost advantages to merge and integrate and improve concentration.

(4) Non-housing market segments (such as automobiles, electronics, etc.) are structural supplements for a long time.