The expectation of "anti-involution" was boosted, and glass continued to rise

Focus

Noble metal

Affected by the unexpected upset of non-farm payrolls in August and the rise in expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, spot gold rose above $3,630, continuing to hit a record high, rising more than $1,000 during the year, and finally closing up 1.38% to close at $3,635.50 per ounce; Spot silver finally closed up 0.81% at $41.30 an ounce. Non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000 in August, far below market expectations of 75,000, the lowest level in nearly four years, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. At present, the Fed's interest rate cut in September is almost certain, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is heating up. In addition, geopolitical and economic uncertainty remains, and political turmoil in France and Japan and risk aversion have boosted gold prices. In addition, Trump signed an executive order to adjust the scope of tariff policy, including products that cannot be produced in the United States or are not sufficient to meet domestic demand, certain agricultural products, aircraft and parts, and non-patent items for pharmaceutical applications. Boosted by risk aversion and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the short-term gold price is running strongly, and the early bull market spread strategy is mostly short AU2510C832 AU2510C776 continued, or the 832 exercise price option can be transferred upwards, and the follow-up attention will be paid to CPI data. In terms of silver, under the gold-silver price ratio and the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, it is recommended to operate more in the short term, and a bull market spread strategy can be adopted.

Crude

Overnight, the WTI October contract closed at $62.26 per barrel, up 0.63%, and the Brent November contract closed at $66.02 per barrel, up 0.79%. On September 7, OPEC+ confirmed in principle that it would continue to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, gradually returning to the previous 1.65 million barrels of production cut, which is lower than the production increase quota in recent months, and oil prices stabilized. The United States and Europe have expressed their intention to impose a new round of sanctions on Russia, which also has some support for oil prices. It is expected that INE crude oil will have room for repair today and will fluctuate strongly.

Building materials

The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held in October to study the suggestions on the "15th Five-Year Plan", and the market has high expectations for the plan to involve anti-involution. Hubei, the second largest producing area, has issued the "Three-Year Action Plan for the Improvement of the Green Building Materials Industry (2025-2027)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"), which clearly promotes the transformation of the building materials industry to green and intelligent through a series of innovative measures, boosts market sentiment, and the glass supply side is more disturbed, the overall price center of gravity will move up, and glass 2601 will be more involved. In the context of glass anti-involution production reduction and environmental protection production line transformation, the high inventory and high supply situation cannot be alleviated for the time being, and soda ash 2601 is still treated as bearish.

Grease

Due to the slowdown in the pace of OPEC+ production increase, and according to institutional report data, Malaysian palm oil production fell month-on-month from September 1 to 5, which supported palm palm, and palm oil rebounded in the afternoon. MPOB is about to release Malaysia's August supply and demand report, with market institutions predicting a 1%-2.5% increase in production and a 4.1%-4.76% increase in inventory. In terms of vegetable oil, the news of Australian seed procurement is fermenting, and the current vegetable oil inventory is still at a high level, and the terminal consumption performance continues to be sluggish, resulting in the pressure on the vegetable oil market. However, the operating rate of oil mills is generally low, and the number of rapeseed ships in the fourth quarter has decreased, and it is expected that the supply of vegetable oil will gradually tighten in the later period, which will form a certain bottom support for prices. Short-term vegetable oil market fluctuations and adjustments. In terms of soybean oil, the implementation of the U.S. soybean oil firewood policy, the market can be speculated on in the future, and it is expected to follow the oil sector to fluctuate.

02
This morning news
Energy sector

1. Fuel oil: The overall supply increase on the cost side has limited support for fuel oil. In the week ending September 3, 2025, fuel oil inventories increased by 2.675 million barrels to 27.399 million barrels, a 37-week high. In the short term, high and low sulfur fuel is affected by insufficient support on the cost side, and the shock is weak.

2. PX: Although polyester has gradually entered the peak season, polyester has started to rise slowly, downstream demand has a certain support, some maintenance devices at home and abroad have been restarted one after another, and the short-term process benefits have expanded, the supply of PX has increased compared with expectations, and it is expected that the price of PX will be under pressure.

3. PTA: TA spot processing fell to about 140 yuan/ton again, as of September 5, PTA load was 72.8%, and the polyester load was 91% at a low level in the same period. However, the market lacks confidence in the later demand, and the current spot liquidity is acceptable, and the basis continues to weaken.

4. Ethylene glycol: At present, the overall load in China is 74.12%, down 1.01% month-on-month, which is at a high level, but the recent plant maintenance disturbance has increased, and the ethylene glycol port inventory is about 450,000 tons, a historical low.

5. Short fiber: short fiber oscillation operation at night. Last week, the staple fiber load was 93.4%, +1.3% month-on-month. The terminal start was partially adjusted, the start of the loom rose slightly to 66%, the reinforcement started at 78%, and the sales were differentiated from high and low yesterday, with an average production and sales of 58%. Last week, staple fiber inventory was 13.1 days, -0.2 days month-on-month. Last week, the decline in staple fiber was less than that of the raw material side, and the current processing difference is around 1024 yuan/ton, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term driven by the cost side.

6. Bottle flakes: night disk bottle flakes vibrate operation. Last week, the maintenance of the bottle flake unit was restarted in parallel, and the load of the flakes rebounded to 81.6%, +0.8% month-on-month. Last week, the inventory of bottle flakes was 16.52 days, +0.09 days month-on-month. The fundamental drive of the bottle flakes itself is limited, and the short-term cost side has limited support for the price of bottle flakes, and the processing difference of bottle flakes has returned to around 405 yuan/ton with the price decline.

7. Pure benzene: There are no new maintenance devices for pure benzene this week, the operating rate is stable as a whole, and the supply remains high. The overall downstream start declined, but it is still high, and the future maintenance volume of styrene is large, and the demand for pure benzene is expected to contract in the short term. At present, the inventory of pure benzene ports is high, and the demand for pure benzene in September is highly limited, and it is expected that weak shocks will be the main focus.

8. Styrene: On the supply side, styrene started this week increased by 1.6% to 79.74% month-on-month, and short-term supply remained abundant. The downstream three-S comprehensive start is weak and the inventory is high, but it is currently entering the seasonal peak season, and demand is likely to be repaired. East China port inventory is 197,000 tons, which is at a historical high, and the short-term fundamental improvement is limited under the high inventory and poor terminal demand, and it is expected that styrene will fluctuate and operate.

9. Methanol: The price of coking coal has stabilized, optimism has driven the price of methanol to rise, and the upstream bidding in the mainland production area has more premium transactions, but the inventory of domestic enterprises and ports is high, the market supply is loose, and the price has continued to rise recently, and the pressure on the upper side has also increased, so it is recommended that methanol 2601 turn to a bearish idea to participate.

10. Polyolefins: In terms of PE, in the short term, in terms of cost, there is room for crude oil prices to fall. On the supply side, some enterprises have short-term maintenance, but with the restart of the early maintenance devices, the supply is expected to increase. In terms of demand, the downstream has entered the traditional peak season, and orders from product companies have picked up, and the demand for raw materials has increased slightly. In terms of PP, the pressure of new capacity expansion is concentrated, and the short-term demand side is slowly followed, but in the face of supply speed far exceeding the growth rate of demand, the market destocking pressure is still obvious. In the short term, the fundamentals of polyolefins are expected to improve but are still weak. It is recommended to pay attention to marginal changes in subsequent policies.

Agricultural products sector

1. Oilseeds: In terms of soybean meal, U.S. soybean exports performed sluggishly, especially China's continued failure to purchase U.S. soybeans, exacerbating market pressure. Last week's USDA weekly crop growth report showed that the excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 65%, lower than the market estimate of 68% and lower than the previous week's 69%, but unchanged from the same period last year. Domestically, soybean meal inventory this week was 1.1362 million tons, an increase of 57,400 tons or 5.32% over last week, but there is still a gap in imported soybeans at the end of the year, the bottom support is strong, and the soybean meal is running steadily. In terms of rapeseed meal, with the initial layoff of seed anti-dumping, the market hype has waned. However, the news of Australian seed procurement has served as a hedge against forward supply concerns, and market expectations have tended to balance. Rapeseed meal follows soybean meal in the short term.

2. White sugar: The market expects that in 2025/26, the sugar production in central and southern Brazil will be 39.7 million tons, lower than the previous expectation of 41.6 million tons, and this year it will change from production increase expectations to production reduction expectations. The global supply and demand pattern is still moving towards an oversupply of 3 million tons. Sugar production for the 2024/25 sugar production period has been fully completed. During this sugar production period, a total of 11,162,100 tons of sugar were produced, an increase of 1,198,900 tons or 12.03% year-on-year. The cumulative sales of sugar nationwide were 9.5498 million tons, an increase of 1.2984 million tons or 15.73% year-on-year: the cumulative sugar sales rate was 86.56%, an increase of 3.74 percentage points year-on-year. industrial inventory was 1.6123 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 99,500 tons. In July 2025, our country imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year-on-year. From January to July 2025, our country will import a total of 1.79 million tons of sugar, an increase of 70,000 tons year-on-year. As of the end of July in the 24/25 pressing season, our country has imported 3.25 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year decrease of 330,000 tons. There is global production increase pressure, internal supply reduction caused by ready-mixed powder control, sugar futures or range shocks, and the "reverse repo" option strategy focuses on selling 11MS5300P + selling 11MS6300C strategy.

3. Pigs: Pig prices continue to decline, the pressure on the breeding end is still large, and the terminal demand has not improved. The price trend is downward, the degree of retail subscription has increased, the short-term bearishness is dominant, the market pessimism is strong, and the price is expected to fluctuate.

Black plate
1. Steel mine: Although the market has entered the peak season, the recent demand in the construction industry is not good, with an apparent consumption of 2.0207 million tons of threads, a decrease of 21,400 tons month-on-month, and the demand for the peak season in September has yet to be verified. In the future, Tangshan blast furnace will resume production one after another, steel production may be running at a high level, and the pressure on supply and demand has increased. At the same time, with the decline in the efficiency of steel mills, the pressure on the furnace charge has fallen, the cost support has weakened, and the black resonance has fallen, and the short-term steel mine is expected to fluctuate and operate, and the follow-up attention will be paid to the recovery of demand and output.

2. Double coke: The coal mines that were temporarily suspended in the early stage have resumed production one after another, the supply of coking coal has gradually recovered, and the blast furnace of Tangshan Steel Mill is also resuming production, but recently affected by the uncertainty of the steel market, the recovery of molten iron is highly doubtful, the market lacks speculative demand, and the overall transaction performance is light. The first round of coke is raised and landed, under the market's downward sentiment, the downstream is mainly to digest the existing raw material inventory, and it is expected to be raised and lowered for about 1-2 rounds, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term.

Metal finance sector
1. Stock index: A-shares fluctuated and consolidated throughout the day, and the three major stock indexes all fluctuated and strengthened in the afternoon, the ChiNext index narrowed, and the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index rose for a while. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.84%; The half-day turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan. In August 2025, China's exports in US dollars grew by 4.4%, compared with the previous value of 7.2%; import growth rate was 1.3%, the previous value was 4.1%; The month-on-month growth rate of exports in August was 0 compared with July, significantly lower than the same period last year, reflecting that the high base last year dragged down the export growth rate. Equipment exports remained high, intermediate goods exports remained resilient, but labor-intensive commodity exports weakened significantly. Considering last year's high base effect and the blockade of US entrepot trade, export growth during the year still faces challenges. Recently, the implementation of industrial policies has accelerated, and the State Council has strengthened the strategic deployment of artificial intelligence + to boost the technology sector. As the futures index continues to rebound from the low level, the valuation of broad-based indexes is basically at a historical high, and the congestion of small-cap stocks has increased, and short-term market volatility has intensified. In the medium and long term, in the context of the downward trend of risk-free yield and the deepening reform of the capital market, deposits flow to the stock market, and medium and long-term funds enter the market, which is conducive to the slow bull market of the A-share market. It is recommended that the long order of the profit index in the early stage can be reduced, and the position can be increased after the decline stops and stabilizes, and at the same time, holding the long order of the futures index can consider buying a long position of shallow out-of-the-money put option protection index.

2. Copper: The non-farm payrolls data in August unexpectedly fell, and the weak US dollar index formed a favorable environment for non-ferrous prices. From the perspective of copper supply and demand, the supply of copper ore and scrap on the raw material side is relatively tight, consumption is seasonally picking up, coupled with the recycled copper policy driving the demand for refined copper, copper will most likely continue to be destocked in the future. The pressure comes from the expectation of an increase in net imports after the implementation of US tariffs, but the tightness on the raw material side will reduce this pressure, and the copper price support is strong. On the whole, a certain synergy has been formed at the macro and micro levels, and it is expected that short-term copper prices will run strongly.

3. Alumina: The resumption of operations of Guinea's ports that were suspended in the early stage, the acceleration of the resumption of production of domestic alumina enterprises and the continuous rise in warehouse receipt registrations have further strengthened the inventory accumulation trend, the fundamentals of alumina have weakened, and the futures price has pulled back sharply. However, the current price is in the full cost range of 3,000-3,100 yuan, and it still has a certain amount of support, so it is recommended to leave the market in the early stage.

4. Electrolytic aluminum: The State Council recently issued a document to deploy and promote the energy-saving and carbon-reducing transformation of the non-ferrous metal industry, clarifying the long-term constraints on the supply side from the policy level, and the subsequent increase in domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity will be strictly restricted. The international side is also facing a supply contraction, and South32 is considering temporarily shutting down the Mozal aluminum refinery with a capacity of 580,000 tons, which accounts for about 0.8% of global supply, further exacerbating the tight supply expectations in the global aluminum market. Domestically, the recent tight supply of scrap aluminum has promoted the gradual emergence of the primary aluminum substitution effect, and the superimposed social inventory of primary aluminum is still at a relatively low level in the same period.

5. Polysilicon: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 to 2026", which proposes to achieve high-quality development in photovoltaic and other fields in breaking the "involution" competition, and to control low-price competition of photovoltaic and other products in accordance with the law. Guide local governments to lay out photovoltaic and lithium battery industries in an orderly manner, and guide local governments to sort out production capacity. At present, industry self-discipline is underway, and domestic polysilicon production is expected to be less than 130,000 tons in September. However, the fundamental pressure of polysilicon supply growth, high inventory, weak demand, and increased warehouse receipts has not eased.